News and Events
NEXT MEETING ALERT:
Join us at 11am (EST) on September 8th as we host: Dr. Amber Ulbrich who will speak on “Quantum technologies: What are they, and what are they not?” In this briefing she will provide an overview of quantum technologies and their potential, some perspective on how they may impact our future, and some tips on how to make sense of the headlines. Be sure to RSVP at FFCoI.org by 9/6/2022.
TO RSVP click the black box above - the "RSVP" text is a hyperlink.
POC: Sharaelle Grzesiak
The Foresight & Strategic Planning team at US GAO is hiring! The team is looking for a well-skilled foresight and strategic planning candidate. Through the Center for Strategic Foresight, you will have the opportunity to advance foresight both at GAO and externally, and enhance the agency’s horizon scanning and foresight programs to inform GAO’s Strategic Plan. Be sure to apply to this unique opportunity by September 16.
POC: Dan Backo and Will Swaim
Consider the example of the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), commonly known as a drone. In the hands of a bad actor, is it a physical threat or cyber threat? Both. Threat convergence shows up in the data, too: 20% of organizations have detected an IoT-based attack in the past three years, and 85% of companies agree the physical threat landscape has significantly changed. Yet organizations continue to separate physical and cyber security approaches, leaving them vulnerable to increased risk. Toffler Associates developed an infographic on cyber-physical assessment to integrate and improve security across the enterprise.
TRAINING OPPORTUNITY: LINKING FORESIGHT TO AGILE ORGANIZATION DESIGN:
POC: Jim Stockmal
Does your agency need to become more agile and better design the necessary “sense and respond” capabilities for any plausible scenario? Consider LBL Strategies’ Mastering Agile Organization Design Certification program, offered in partnership with the George Washington University Center for Excellence in Public Leadership and the Baldrige Foundation. The next cohort of Mastering Agile Organization Design will be held this fall. For more information, visit the LBL Strategies website.
POC: Nicole Baker Rosa
The Futures School offers Professional Certification in Natural Foresight® which is endorsed by the Global Foresight Advisory (GFAC). For those who meet eligibility for the Certified Foresight Practitioner credential, the next online testing window is Dec 1 – Feb 15 (apps due Dec 15).
POC: April Koury
Registration is open for UH’s 5-day virtual Foresight boot camp. Now in its 13th year, the seminar offers a hands-on approach to foresight, where participants take a project through UH’s Framework Foresight process, with theory, exercises, and discussions. Participants receive the textbook, Thinking about the Future, and a Professional Certificate in Foresight. Classes run every Wednesday, 9am-12:30pm CST, Oct 5-Nov 2.
FORESIGHT IS 20/20: CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES IN CONGRESS’ FUTURE
POC: Chayenne Polimédio
Read the Partnership for Public Service’s three scenario-planning issue briefs aimed at helping Congress think about the future in a more proactive way, maximize its strengths, and build resilience.
U.S. GAO STRATEGIC PLAN AWARDED THE GOODMAN AWARD FOR EXCELLENCE IN STRATEGY:
POC: Sharaelle Grzesiak
For the second time GAO’s 2022-2027 Strategic Plan has been awarded the Association for Strategic Planning’s Goodman Award for excellence in Strategy in the National Government category. The plan will guide GAO’s work as they help lawmakers oversee federal operations and address the most important issues facing the government and society. (POC: Sharaelle Grzesiak)
BLOG: DISILLUSIONED YOUTH: A DANGER TO DEMOCRACY:
POC: Steve Gale and Mat Burrows
This blog examines the evidence that youth disillusionment is a growing and serious threat to democracy. Challenges today play out in a landscape of immense political instability. Leaving youth wanting to “opt out.” Youth disengagement will ultimately have negative impacts beyond democratic engagement with potential shockwaves on social stability, and more.
Building Government Resiliency with Strategy Foresight:
POC: Lauren Oliver
Learn why strategic foresight will be increasingly necessary for federal agencies, as a framework for challenging assumptions, fostering innovation, and preparing for obstacles ahead. This new research report by Accenture Federal offers four steps to adopt and scale strategic foresight methods.
LONG COVID IMPACT - WHITE PAPER:
POC: Melissa Smallwood
A white paper by the Solve Long Covid Initiative estimates Long Covid may affect 22-43 million Americans, with 7-14 million of these cases causing new or worsening disability. This paper explores the economic impact of Long Covid on
Center for Strategic Foresight Trends Report 2022:
POC: Sharaelle Grzesiak
In 2022, GAO staff worked with experts including the Center’s Fellows to identify 12 trends affecting government and society. Read the report here, check out our press release, or watch the video . These trends explore what will likely affect government and society in the next 5 to 15 years—including science and technology in an innovation economy, global supply chains, racial and ethnic disparities, and national security threats.
DOD 2022 National Defense Strategy:
POC: NDS 2022 Fact Sheet
The Department of Defense transmitted the classified 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS) to Congress today (March 28, 2022). The classified NDS sets out how the Department of Defense will contribute to advancing and safeguarding vital U.S. national interests – protecting the American people, expanding America’s prosperity, and realizing and defending our democratic values. An unclassified version is expected to be available to the public in coming weeks.
THE META TRENDING TRENDS 2022:
POC: Matt Klein
The fifth annual Meta Trend Report synthesizes 500+ trends from 40+ reports, ranking the 14 most frequently reported cultural trends for 2022. Meta Trends are not the final product. They’re the start…Rather than treating these Meta Trends as an accurate forecast, we must now also use them as filters to seek out what’s NOT discussed…It’s the weak signals and under-discussed which continue to spur true threats and opportunities: the messy, uncomfortable, and complex concepts these reports will never face. The overlooked — not the mainstream reportage nor this report — must be our focus.
PODCAST: MAD SCIENTIST LAB - with Robin Champ:
The Convergence podcast episode, featuring Robin Champ, Chief, Enterprise Strategy Division, U.S. Secret Service, where she discusses women leading in national security, empowering diversity to think about the future, and how emerging technologies and trends will affect Secret Service missions.
ARTICLE: STRATEGIC FORESIGHT IN U.S. AGENCIES:
POC: J. Peter Scoblic
U.S. public policy has often been myopic, sacrificing long-term needs to short-term interests. This short-termism not only reduces economic performance, threatens the environment, and undermines national security—to name but a few consequences—it also leaves the United States vulnerable to surprise and limits its ability to manage crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The question is, what to do about it? This report argues that it is, in part, a mechanism for coping with the uncertainty of the future and that reducing myopia requires providing policymakers tools for managing that uncertainty. Specifically, it maintains that the practice of strategic foresight—the rigorous examination of imagined alternative futures to better sense, shape, and adapt to the emerging future—can put boundaries around future uncertainty while enabling better strategy in the present.
ARTICLE: A FUTURIST'S GUIDE TO PREPARING YOUR COMPANY FOR CONSTANT CHANGE:
POC: April Rinne
While finding “the right time” to prepare for change can be difficult, there are myriad ways to get started. A recent article by the Harvard Business Review, “A Futurist’s Guide to Preparing Your Company for Constant Change” looks back at 2020 and 2021 as wake up calls for how quickly things can change. It is important to consider past experiences as warning for what’s ahead – not necessarily a pandemic but more disruptions.
EUROPEAN COMMISSION 2021 - STRATEGIC FORESIGHT REPORT:
POC: Daniel Ferrie
The 2021 Strategic Foresight Report has identified four global trends that could impact the EU’s capacity and freedom to act in the coming decades. Those trends include climate change; tech transformations; democracy and values; and global order and demography.
SOIF CASE STUDY - GOVERNMENT OFFICE FOR SCIENCE:
POC: Ruth Beveridge
The School of International Futures (SOIF) recently published its Government Office for the Science case study report. The report discusses building effective foresight governance systems, and contains a blog summarizing the work. The report explores how governments in eight countries use foresight and futures techniques – with examples from FFCOI, VA, USCG, GAO, and more.
IFTF FORESIGHT TALKS WITH SHARAELLE GRZESIAK:
POC: Sharaelle Grzesiak
Be sure to catch IFTF Foresight talks where Co-Chair Sharaelle Grzesiak, shared how she's integrated strategic foresight into multiple federal government agencies and policies through workshops, consultations, and community-building. If you missed it the video is now available along with other great speakers.
BOOK ALERT: CONVERGENCE:
POC: Deborah Westphal
In May, author and former CEO at Toffler - Deborah Westphal - recently released Convergence: Technology, Business, and the Human-centric Future. Convergence is a clarion call for a future-focus. The book explores how and why business, technology, and humanity are intersecting and considers what decisions we must make. The books calls on leaders to make a choice – remain committed to profits above all else or shift to a human-centric approach that embraces the convergence.
GLOBAL TRENDS 2040:
In March 2021, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) published their 7th edition of the NIC Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World. The global trends report provides an analytic framework for each administration as they craft a national security strategy and navigate an uncertain future. While NIC does not provide a specific prediction of the world in 2040, it does provide an idea of what may lie beyond the horizon to prepare for an array of possible futures.
POC: Bart Edes
COVID- 19 shredded our plans, while injecting greater uncertainty into a world already undergoing disruptive change. Learning from Tomorrow: Using Strategic Foresight to Prepare for the Next Big Disruption, explains how planners and decision-makers are using Strategic foresight to “future proof” new plans and strategies.
FUTURE OF GOVERNMENT IN 2030:
POC: Maria Bothwell
ViWhat will the Future of Government in 2030 look like 24 futurists were interviewed about how the world might look in 2030. To get a sense of what the coming decade might mean for state and local governments, they asked futurists, including thought leaders, public officials, academics, and tech experts for their ideas on the trends that will have the greatest impact on the public sector over the next 10 years. Their responses, condensed and in this article, provide a glimpse into what may happen in the years ahead.
ARTICLE - THE FUTURE OF WORK POST-PANDEMIC: WE'RE NOT GOING BACK:
POC: John Kamensky
It is estimated that many private sector companies jumped three to four years ahead into the future workplace in the space of a few weeks due to the pandemic. Government areas also adapted to the new normal by transitioning services online that had been traditionally reluctant to redesign. While many kinks need to be worked out, government will have to adapt to many challenges, and look ahead to a new normal.